Final Projection: Trump Brexit Effect/Hidden Vote to Carry the Day

Apologies for the tardiness in posting the past few days…lots of doings on 4chan that needed some around the clock investigating. Three consecutive nights up until 5 a.m. has left me a bit of a wreck. More on the strange revelations still to come.

This is my final projection for the 2016 presidential race. For reference of my methodology, please refer to the following posts. Here and here.

From what I’ve gathered from the tea leaves of early voting tallies and ethnic turnouts in individual states and districts, I see a clear Trump victory just short of a landslide. Although I obviously have no access to each campaign’s internal polling, one reason I am so confident of a Trump victory is that Hillary Clinton has been spending her time defending normally safe states for Democrats.

final-projection-for-2016-presidential-election-brexit-effect-black-swan-trumpageddon

Here are the other seminal factors used in this projection:

  • I am being conservative on the Trexit effect. I factored in about a 2-3% Trexit swing, using different percentages depending on the state. This is mostly derived from the so-called “Monster Vote” of typically disaffected non-voters who are not being reflected in MSM polling. White men are going to turn out in droves especially in the critical rust belt swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump’s base is more riled and motivated than Clinton’s, just as Obama’s was to Romney’s.
  • ¬†Demographic breakdowns and smoothing by state. Black turnout is going to be significantly less than the past two presidential elections. Simply stated, AAs who voted for the first half-black president are not as comparatively enthused for Hillary Clinton. Also, Obama beat Romney 93 to 6% among this demographic. Trump will exceed the percentage. I factored in 9-10% for Trump.
  • Hispanic turnout is higher. I foresee Trump getting about the same percentage of Hispanic votes as Romney, maybe outperforming by a hair. The percentage of Hispanics in America is highly concentrated in a few states so it is easier to gauge the impact. For Trump, I think it will cost him Nevada.
  • Social Media interest/Google searches for each candidate. The guerrilla campaign tactics of reaching voters via the new media is quickly supplanting traditionally-held strategies of a “strong ground game.” I’m a believer. It’s a new and unproven method, and if this projection is wrong, I think this would be the flaw in my modeling. This will be a good test case.
  • The “Shy Trump Voter” factor, due to our living in an age of political correctness.
  • Historical data. This is a kind of tiebreaker. For instance, there is precious little polling data from New Mexico to make an accurate forecast. The most recent poll has Clinton +2 there. But there is no way to smooth it, since all other polls are so old they may as well be useless. In this case, New Mexico has usually gone to the Democratic candidate. So, I will chalk it up to Hillary.
  • Right track/wrong track polling and the state of the current economy relative to how such economic times have historically affected the vote.

Ok, so there it is. I’ll be either a hero or a zero come this time tomorrow night. Best of luck, fellow Deplorables.

1 Comment

  1. Hello sir, I don’t know what happened to this blog, but you should really consider continuing doing it. It is some fantastic work.

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