This is based upon using my proprietary “secret sauce” calculations which factor in available weighted polling data, demographics, momentum, world political trends and intensity of a candidate’s support.
Intangibles are always left out of voting projections in the major media (and for good reason), but I’m under no such constraints. I believe Trump enjoys a hidden vote, which is evident by the volume and intensity of his campaign rallies and also from global shifts against those entrenched in power by we “Deplorables”. Ask Remain supporters how accurate mainstream media polls were in the days leading up to Brexit. But still, in spite of my personal bias against Mrs. Clinton, I do try to be objective when it comes to projections, the same as if I were trading stocks again. Emotion kills analysis.
Since this is an “if the election were held today” prediction, toss-up states have been given to either Clinton or Trump even if the data shows the race as too close to call. It’s just for fun and bragging rights to see if I can nail 50 out of 50 like Nate Silver often does.
The lightest shades of blue and red are where my data has a lead of less than 3%. If I am Donald Trump, I am expending my dry powder on shoring up NC, CO, NM and NV as these are the states where my data shows his lead is narrowest. Most surprising is that ME is clearly in play for him. For Hillary Clinton, she needs to flip at least two of them back.
This is, of course, unscientific and dependent on one man’s configuring of information and trends. I’ll do a few more of these in the coming weeks.
Thanks to RealClearPolitics for the use of its nifty, customizable Electoral Map.