Brexit Effect Electoral Map Projections: Trumpoween Edition

Halloween is supposed to be a grand old time for witches; the season for them to ride free and cackle with impunity as they beguile the simpletons with their false crafts. It was looking good for Hillary Clinton for a while. Really it was. But now it seems the emails she exchanged with her coven might bring the Clinton Foundation down on her head. My Brexit Effect Electoral Map Projection reveals that on the evening of November 8th, all that might remain of her are a pair of ruby slippers and two cankled legs in black and white socks. That is if he doesn’t take the slippers as a hunting trophy.

It’s going to be a Happy Trumpoween.

I’ve added a little twist to this projection. Included you will find several electoral maps that correspond with different levels of a Brexit Effect for Donald Trump. These will be solid blue or solid red only, no toss-ups, no leaning states.

All available polling used is PRIOR to the Clinton FBI fiasco, so chances are high that Trump is in even better shape than what is hereby disclosed.

As a reminder for the methodology used, kindly refer to this post.

This is based upon using my proprietary “secret sauce” calculations which factor in available weighted polling data, demographics, momentum, historical precedent, right track/wrong track polling, world political and voting trends, and the intensity of a candidate’s support.

Projection 1, No Brexit Effect

Here we take the polling data as of October 30th at face value (HA!). In essence, it is the model pimped by a mainstream media and an establishment that does not have its ear to the ground. This is by far the least likely scenario. It assumes no polling bias, no Brexit Effect and minimal smoothing on my part.

face-value-10-30-16-snapshot-no-brexit-effect

Projection #2, Minor Brexit Effect

This one takes into account only the smallest of shifts based on voter enthusiasm and turnout. In this scenario, we gave Trump between a 0.7 and 0.9% bump. As you can see Arizona and Nevada turn blue, but it is still a small Clinton win. Factoring in the FBI news and this projection essentially becomes a dead heat. This is our second most likely outcome.

brexit-effect-very-minor-10-30-16-snapshot

Projection #3, Moderate Brexit Effect

I’ll be using this scenario for my final projection on Election Eve. Here, it is assumed that Trump will receive between a 1.5 and 2.5% swing in his favor over current polling based on the strongly rising nationalist trends throughout the U.S. and the world at-large. It factors an above-average turnout of Trump supporters, a slightly below-average turnout for Clinton and a moderate increase in voters who have not voted in recent elections. Historical correlations of right-track/wrong-track polling is used as well. I believe this is actually quite conservative, considering that the Brexit polls were off between 5% and 9%. But it is the middle scenario, and hence the most likely.

brexit-effect-moderate-snapshot-10-30-16-electoral-map-rcp

 

You’ll see that North Carolina and Colorado are now in the Trump camp. This is the first projection that shows him winning the Electoral College. This is our most likely outcome.

Projection 4, Strong Brexit Effect

Here, we give Trump a 2.5% to 3.5% swing (the level of the boost is dependent on individual state demographic factors and state voting history). This is our third most likely outcome out of five, but the chances are well below Projection 3 above. Factors here include above-average turnout for Trump supporters, poor Clinton turnout, and an adjustment for considering a small smattering of Shy Trump voters (i.e., those who lie to pollsters)

strong-brexit-effect-10-30-16-snapshot-real-clear-politics

It is still a narrow victory for Trump, with New Hampshire, Maine and New Mexico becoming more and more deplorable.

Projection 5, Full “Orange Swan” Brexit Effect

This is the one which will cause MSM journalists to lose their minds and put professional pollsters on the unemployment line. This is the nuclear Brexit Effect, Silent Majority time. Older voters in this scenario turn out in force, the enthusiasm gap in turnout is significant, late deciders and third-party supporters break to the viable change candidate. This factors a 4 to 5.5% shift.

full-brexit-effect-electoral-map-10-30-16-snapshot-orange-swan-rcp

We’re approaching landslide territory for Trump. The Rust Belt states of Michigan and Wisconsin have flipped red, as well as the rich in electors Pennsylvania It is our fourth most likely out of five outcomes.

Happy Trumpoween!

 

 

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